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  1. #1
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    Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Behind the Urgent Diplomacy: A Sense Iran Will Get the Bomb
    By DAVID E. SANGER

    WASHINGTON, Feb. 5 — Hours after the United States and Europe prevailed in a contest over officially reporting Iran's history of clandestine nuclear activity to the United Nations Security Council, President Bush issued a statement on Saturday from his ranch, saying that the overwhelming vote showed "the world will not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons."

    But even some of Mr. Bush's own advisers say that may prove an overstatement. Behind the diplomatic maneuvering, many of the diplomats and nuclear experts involved in the West's effort believe that stopping the program cold is highly unlikely, and probably impossible. They acknowledge that a more realistic goal now is to delay the day that Iran joins the nuclear club.

    "Look, the Pakistanis and the North Koreans got there, and they didn't have Iran's money or the engineering expertise," said one senior official who is instrumental in putting together the American strategy. "Sooner or later, it's going to happen. Our job is to make sure it's later." By that time, he said, the hope is that a changed or different government is in power in Tehran.

    In part, this is the newfound realism of an administration that has learned some hard lessons in Iraq, and is no longer quite so eager to talk about pre-empting what it regards as looming threats.

    But the goal rises from a growing understanding of the damage wrought by the clandestine nuclear network of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear engineer who began supplying the Iranians with designs, prototypes and equipment in the late 1980's, beneath the radar of American intelligence agencies. By the time Dr. Khan and the Iranians split in the mid-1990's, apparently in a dispute over money and advanced technology, Iran was already well advanced on the learning curve.

    The evidence assembled by United Nations inspectors in the past two years — in inspections that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, says will now end — indicates that the country has assembled an impressive network of new suppliers, built the basic facilities it needs, and identified the critical technologies it must master. Yet by virtually all assessments, that hasn't been enough. The Iranians still have several years of work ahead of them, a judgment restated last week by John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence. The painstaking process of actually manufacturing the material to make a fuel usable in weapons, by enriching uranium or reprocessing spent plutonium from power reactors, is a lot harder than it looks in the movies. There is some evidence the Iranians have encountered technological roadblocks.

    "The obstacles give us some time, and you have to hope that we use it well, so that the current domestic consensus in favor of the nuclear program in Iran will break," said Robert J. Einhorn, who served as a top nonproliferation official in the Clinton administration and the early days of the Bush administration. "The vote yesterday was impressive, and now it is about making Iran realize that none of this is cost-free — and that the result will be a change in the character of the regime, or at least a conclusion that this is a losing proposition for them."

    While the United States has shared with foreign governments some of its own evidence and studies about Iran's nuclear program, the administration knows that after the debacle over the faulty intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, someone else must take the lead in assessing how close Iran is getting to a weapon. What has propelled the issue forward in the past few days were the declarations by the atomic energy agency itself, including officials who were openly skeptical about Mr. Bush's case against Iraq three years ago. For years the agency and its director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, stayed publicly neutral on the question of whether Iran's program was peaceful, as it insists, or intended to build a weapon.

    Dr. ElBaradei, whom the Bush administration tried to oust from his job only a year ago, circulated a report that pointed to links between Iran's ostensibly civilian nuclear program and its military. The report characterized designs that inspectors had found in Iran, supplied by Dr. Khan's network, as clearly "related to the fabrication of nuclear weapon components." Those designs sketched out how to perfect uranium spheres, a shape that can be imploded to set off a nuclear explosion.

    Those discoveries were so helpful in bolstering the case that Russia, China, Egypt, India and Yemen, among others, lined up against Iran in the 27-to-3 vote of the board of the United Nations nuclear energy agency. While it is possible that the mounting pressure may exploit fissures within Iran between those who want the bomb and those who value integration with the West, it may also set up a nationalistic response. And Iran's leaders have already noted that four other countries that the United States said should never become nuclear powers — Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea — have all made the leap and are now, with the exception of North Korea, largely accepted as members of the nuclear club.

    Moreover, few see that Washington has many options. "Can you delay the onset of the Iranian bomb? Maybe," said Charles Ferguson, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. But even taking military action against Iran's known nuclear sites, he said, could "stimulate them to cross the nuclear Rubicon because you've showed your hand, you've showed that you're willing to use military force to try to damage their nuclear program."

    That may be where the debate is headed. Mr. Bush, in his public statements, has begun reiterating that all his options are on the table, words that have shades of his comments about Iraq three years ago. But he has been deliberately less fiery, mindful of not fracturing the coalition he has built. His aides, in contrast, have been sent out in recent days with stronger messages about what the world would look like if Iran had a bomb. And in Munich this weekend, Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, staking out a position that is more hawkish than anything the Bush administration has said in public, put the predicament this way:

    "There is only one thing worse than military action," he said, "and that is a nuclear-armed Iran."

  2. #2
    coontie is offline Vashudeva; Ferryman - doing the work...
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    How about: they've already got it, compliments of the nuclear scientists
    of the Islamic nation of Pakistan...

    Want to bet: Syria...?

    Who got (has now) Sadam's nuclear materials and documents. Baath
    Party was predominitably Sunni Muslims, so is Iran and Syria... So?

  3. #3
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by coontie
    How about: they've already got it, compliments of the nuclear scientists
    of the Islamic nation of Pakistan...
    No, they don't. And there's no evidence, according to the IAEA, that they intend to use their nuclear program to make the bomb.

    Want to bet: Syria...? Who got (has now) Sadam's nuclear materials and documents. Baath Party was predominitably Sunni Muslims, so is Iran and Syria... So?
    Evidence? 0

  4. #4
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Read the REAL news about this at http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/ar.../cat_iran.html Bush admin wants to bomb them over a power station , is not illegal to have a power station. Israel has tons of nuclear weapons. Bush Admin really wants to BOMB innocent Iran because of Iran's oil bourse Bush admin will never allow the Iranian government to open an OIL exchange that trades petro in EUROS if that were to happen hundreds of billions of dollars would come back to the USA crushing the dollars. This is what it is all about. oh the newspapers and the news stations were blocked from this news. Remember you can hardly believe anything on the news these days, since the ELITE own them and tell them what to report. The claim that Iran is making nuclear weapons is another pretext for war, history is repeating itself.... Iraq ... Iran is not talking about nuclear weapons Iran is building a power station and the enrichment process is needed to make fuel for that power station. The more nuclear power Iran has the more of their oil they can sell. The more oil they sell the lower the price. Iran is not a threat to the USA, The USA is one of their largest customers for buying their oil. Well old Rummy-dummy lies to start war in Iran. Why do they want to MURDER innocent people??? BUSH ADMIN IS THE WORST TERRORIST IN THE WORLD!!!!

  5. #5
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Ette
    BUSH ADMIN IS THE WORST TERRORIST IN THE WORLD!!!!

    Ya, it's really too bad he didn't start fighting the "War on Terror" at home first. But then, honesty would have compelled him to resign if he had.

    Lady Mod

  6. #6
    coontie is offline Vashudeva; Ferryman - doing the work...
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Yirmeyahu
    No, they don't. And there's no evidence, according to the IAEA, that they intend to use their nuclear program to make the bomb.



    Evidence? 0
    We'll see... Pack your lunch!
    I'll have to remember your post and I'll get back to you when the news breaks
    and see how glib you are then! See what further you might have
    to add. In the meantime, carry on.
    And, oh, if you are of draft age...rolleyes:
    Last edited by coontie; 02-07-2006 at 05:28 AM. Reason: add

  7. #7
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by coontie
    We'll see... Pack your lunch!
    The comment "we'll see" suggests that evidence may emerge that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon.

    So I take this as an acknowledgment that there is presently "no evidence", as the IAEA reported, that Iran is using its nuclear program to build the bomb.

    I'll have to remember your post and I'll get back to you when the news breaks and see how glib you are then!
    You know, that's exactly what people told me when I said that there was no evidence Iraq had WMD in the months before the invasion....

    Like you said, "we'll see".

  8. #8
    coontie is offline Vashudeva; Ferryman - doing the work...
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Yirmeyahu
    The comment "we'll see" suggests that evidence may emerge that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon.

    So I take this as an acknowledgment that there is presently "no evidence", as the IAEA reported, that Iran is using its nuclear program to build the bomb.



    You know, that's exactly what people told me when I said that there was no evidence Iraq had WMD in the months before the invasion....

    Like you said, "we'll see".
    October 7, 2006; Tuesday: National News; Iran has issued an ultamatim
    and established a deadline, wherein they will carry out their intent
    to remove seals from "certain" buildings, equipment and machinery
    and remove all survelliance cameras. All installed by the International
    Atomic Energy Commission.

    I suppose that they're up to something other than wanting to sit around
    sucking on Popsicles?

    My opinion; as I previously stated and it will be borne out as true in the
    future; it is all a charade. They and Syria already have their weapons.
    They are just seeking to make more. One of their seriously limiting
    factors is that they need a safe and secure place to practice/test
    detonate them, to insure that they have the desired "Bang!" as in
    nuclear reaction.

    The "safe/secure consideration is mostly in regard to theirselves. You
    just don't go about setting off these devices at your front door step.
    There's initial mayhem from the explosion to take into consideration.
    And then, they don't want to later find theirself wandering around
    "glowing in the dark" and throwing up, hair falling out, all due to
    radiation exposure.

    Also, they cannot detonate these devices without being detected.
    We would know, We have sensitive enough seismic wave detection
    equipment to where we could ALMOST pick up the vibrations of a mouse
    farting in Australia. I've had personal experience with this technology.
    We knew when Chernobyl detonated. Also the soviet nuclear submarine
    Kirsk when it detonated in the ocean.

    Interesting how "nervous" our planet is. It emits constant "natural"
    vibrations. Then there are those that are "man-made"... :rolleyes:

    Carry on... :cool:

  9. #9
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by coontie
    October 7, 2006; Tuesday: National News; Iran has issued an ultamatim
    and established a deadline, wherein they will carry out their intent
    to remove seals from "certain" buildings, equipment and machinery
    and remove all survelliance cameras. All installed by the International
    Atomic Energy Commission.

    I suppose that they're up to something other than wanting to sit around
    sucking on Popsicles?
    They're continuing their legitimate nuclear power program.

    Disagree? Where's your evidence? You have your opinion, as you explained above. But where's your evidence? You haven't got any.

    Carry on.

  10. #10
    coontie is offline Vashudeva; Ferryman - doing the work...
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Yirmeyahu
    They're continuing their legitimate nuclear power program.

    Disagree? Where's your evidence? You have your opinion, as you explained above. But where's your evidence? You haven't got any.

    Carry on.

    buzzzzz... line's dead!

  11. #11
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Not sure what that's supposed to mean, but you still don't have any supporting evidence for your claims.

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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Keep hating America and supporting terrorism Yirmeyahu... You're on a roll buddy.

  13. #13
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Keep responding to my responses to people who claim that Iran now has or will soon have nuclear weapons by saying that they have no evidence to support their claims by saying I "hate America" and "support terrorism", Grim. You're on a roll, friend.

  14. #14
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    On EVERY single issue Yirmeyahu, you side against the United States.

    That says it all.

  15. #15
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17
    On EVERY single issue Yirmeyahu, you side against the United States.

    That says it all.
    A wise man would learn the difference between siding with a dictator thereby siding with the United States as you put it, OR siding with the truth. Grim, you have not obtained wisdom.

    If it's a majority you are looking for, the polls show that the majority of the people are not happy over Iraq and want us out. Sixty percent in fact: http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm . So, considering that it's the people who are the true representatives of America, and not Bush, isn't it in actuality siding against the United States to continue to support and continue this war? Which by the way, would mean that Bush sides against the United States and the voice of her people.

    And that would also make you someone who hates America. Yirmeyahu sides with the majority that want us to leave Iraq. I believe he has said so more than once, something to that effect.

    Lady Mod
    Last edited by sojustask; 02-08-2006 at 06:47 PM.

  16. #16
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    Re: Iran Will Get the Bomb

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17
    On EVERY single issue Yirmeyahu, you side against the United States.

    That says it all.
    So, by saying there is not any evidence to support the claim, I am "against the United States".

    Therefore, to be on the side of the United States, I would necessarily have to, instead of recognizing that there is not any evidence, either support the accusation, despite their being no substantiation for my accusations, or say nothing at all and remain silent, even though I know there's no evidence to support the accusation.

    And this is Grim's idea of a true "American".

    And that says it all.
    Last edited by Yirmeyahu; 02-08-2006 at 06:26 PM.

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