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  1. #1
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    TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    In Case You Missed It: Pouting Pundits Of Pessimism From The Wall Street Journal
    By Brian S. Wesbury
    Op-Ed
    December 2, 2005

    During a quarter century of analyzing and forecasting the economy, I have never seen anything like this. No matter what happens, no matter what data are released, no matter which way markets move, a pall of pessimism hangs over the economy. ...
    This onslaught of negative thinking is clearly having an impact. During the 2004 presidential campaign, when attacks on the economy were in full force, 36% of Americans thought we were in recession. One year later, even though unemployment has fallen from 5.5% to 5%, and real GDP has expanded by 3.7%, the number who think a recession is underway has climbed to 43%. ...

    One would think that this would give pouting pundits reason to question their pessimism. After all, politicians who bounce back from scandal get monikers such as "the comeback kid." Athletes who overcome personal tragedy or sickness to achieve greatness are called "heroes." This is a quintessential American tradition, and the economy is following the script perfectly. The more hardship it faces, the more resilient it appears. The list of pessimistic forecasts that have been proved wrong grows by the day.

    The trade deficit was supposed to cause a collapse in the dollar; but the dollar is up 10% versus the euro in the past eight months. The budget deficit was supposed to push up interest rates; yet the 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.5%, is well below its 2000 average yield of 6% when the U.S. faced surpluses as far as the eye could see.

    Sharp declines in consumer confidence and rising oil prices were supposed to hurt retail sales; but holiday shopping is strong. Many fear that China is stealing our jobs, but new reports suggest that U.S. manufacturers are so strong that a shortage of skilled production workers has developed. And since the Fed started hiking interest rates 16 months ago, 3.5 million new jobs and $750 billion in additional personal income have been created. Stocks are also up, which according to pundits was unlikely as long as the Fed was hiking rates. ...

    Moreover, for the past 30 years, real average hourly earnings have declined by an annual average of 0.1%. But this can't possibly reflect reality. In the past 30 years, cell phones and computers have become ubiquitous. Home and auto ownership have climbed. More people dine out; travel; attend sporting events, movies and rock concerts; and join health clubs. Over those same 30 years, real per capita consumption has increased at an average annual rate of 2.3%. Hourly earnings data do not include tips, bonuses, commissions or benefits, and therefore will always lag actual increases in living standards. ...

    One key reason the U.S. economy has outperformed other industrialized nations, and exceeded its long-run average growth rate during the past two years, is the tax cut of 2003. By reducing taxes on investment, the U.S. boosted growth, which in turn created new jobs that replace those that are lost as the old economy dies. ...

    To meet the challenges that lie ahead, a vibrant, flexible and expanding economy is absolutely necessary. While it is tempting to think that government programs are necessary to address anxiety, in reality only the free market can successfully navigate today's rough waters. In the end, it will be the private sector, not the public sector, that quells all this anxiety and creates the opportunities so many desire.

    For Entire Article Please Visit: http://www.opinionjournal.com/editor...l?id=110007622

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  2. #2
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    He's entitled to his opinion.

    :)

    LM

  3. #3
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    well at least we know one thing....POO has never had a thought of his own that didn't come strate from the sewer.(ok,1 or 2)which is why he constantly posts others opinions.he has no mind of his own.or if he shows it,he gets banned.what a stubborn self assured loser.OOPS! i meant WINNER!!his "man" won the election!!WWWEEEEEEEE!!this is the same "man" gets totally and submissively beat to crap by his wife at speakin events!!yet he gets back at her by bombin the third world!!I"M A MAN DAMMIT!!TAKE THAT!!musta been the "charles" royalty "GOOSE' encounter that made her an uptown *****!!hehe!! :eek: :p :rolleyes:

  4. #4
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    You gotta say the guys got conviction and inteligence, just misguided coviction and inteligence. But GW would be very proud of him...
    He should get started on a novel for GW and the republicans,Something that makes um all look wonderful.
    Last edited by war_man; 12-04-2005 at 09:01 AM.
    war_on_scam

  5. #5
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Quote Originally Posted by lexx
    well at least we know one thing....POO has never had a thought of his own that didn't come strate from the sewer.(ok,1 or 2)which is why he constantly posts others opinions.he has no mind of his own.or if he shows it,he gets banned.what a stubborn self assured loser.OOPS! i meant WINNER!!his "man" won the election!!WWWEEEEEEEE!!this is the same "man" gets totally and submissively beat to crap by his wife at speakin events!!yet he gets back at her by bombin the third world!!I"M A MAN DAMMIT!!TAKE THAT!!musta been the "charles" royalty "GOOSE' encounter that made her an uptown *****!!hehe!! :eek: :p :rolleyes:

    On those thankfully rare occasions when you emerge from your self-styled cocoon of frothing gibberish ,it is generally to launch a personal attack on me. Perhaps I should take a moment to point out to you what most already know...that you simply contribute nothing. EVER. You have nothing positive to offer on any subject, prefering to mask your lack of knowledge or opinions in a veil of Tourettes-like babbling. Instead of engaging on a subject, any subject, you insist on throwing cheap shots under the guise of being a 'clever' moron.

    I don't know who you think you are fooling...I think you feel that you appear as a reclusive or retiring 'important thinker'... you do not. When wading through the cesspool of your vomitous spew, certain things remain constant. Your hatred of success, of those who have attained any measure of success, of those who hope to attain success. You hate what our country stands for--not just politically--the concept of working to improve oneself is often the target of your ineffectual, impotent rage. You have not embraced the American attitude of picking yourself up and climbing again. Your failures have defeated you and you are disgusted by those who can keep working to succeed.

    The law of the jungle has not worked in your favor. The law of natural selection does not work in your favor. Neither have the laws of Darwin. Perhaps you should take advantage of the one natural law that WILL work in your favor and find a friendly nearby bridge.

  6. #6
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    I think he really likes you Pwrone. He favors your threads over anyone else's. :D

    LM

  7. #7
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    You know under those shards of long comprehensive words you like to use, you probally are a nice guy. But you set yourself up for attacks from guys like Lex and others cause useing those words the way you do makes you sound like to much of a pr***. Its true you probally know alot more about politcs then most in here, Its just the way you put it across alot of times. And in my oppinion your blind in deffending our worthless president. But Your right to your oppinion is protected,As is everyones on here. Sorry no one can keep with all your prorepublican Bush supportive babbling.
    war_on_scam

  8. #8
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    from npr.com:

    Economic Signs Remain Strong

    Weekend Edition - Sunday, December 4, 2005 · The U.S. economy appears to be holding up well despite a rise in energy prices and damage from the Gulf Coast hurricanes. Growth in the third quarter was much stronger than expected, the stock market is rising and consumer confidence has rebounded.

  9. #9
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Good Report, Some good news i can actually use, The Stock Market Rising is of great interest to me, Thanks RegulationE your alright, even though your a little to probush sometimes, I respect your oppinion...
    war_on_scam

  10. #10
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Quote Originally Posted by war_man
    Good Report, Some good news i can actually use, The Stock Market Rising is of great interest to me, Thanks RegulationE your alright, even though your a little to probush sometimes, I respect your oppinion...
    Thank you.

    BTW, being "pro Bush sometimes" is not a bad thing. You just have to be sure you are Pro Bush for the right reasons and not simply following blindly because of party affiliation or some other nonsense.

    I was even "pro Clinton sometimes" (ok..not many times, but he did some good to great things) :D

  11. #11
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Quote Originally Posted by RegulationE
    from npr.com:

    Economic Signs Remain Strong

    Weekend Edition - Sunday, December 4, 2005 · The U.S. economy appears to be holding up well despite a rise in energy prices and damage from the Gulf Coast hurricanes. Growth in the third quarter was much stronger than expected, the stock market is rising and consumer confidence has rebounded.
    This news is great for the short term. Lets talk about how much foreign debt this administration has put our country in. It took 224 years and 42 presidents to put the U.S. in one trillion dollars in foreign debt. It took Bush 4 years to do the same thing. Please read attachment.

  12. #12
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Thats not hard to figuire out alot of the reason why, Wars can be very costly to our country over time... and the wider the hole gets the further the we plummit......
    war_on_scam

  13. #13
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Quote Originally Posted by war_man
    Thats not hard to figuire out alot of the reason why, Wars can be very costly to our country over time... and the wider the hole gets the further the we plummit......
    Here is some interesting information to think about.

    Since I have not found the data for what the National Debt was when Carter took office, I have left him out of the figures.

    Looking at Presidential Terms to date (Through June of 2005)

    Reagan increased the National Debt by 284% taking it from 826.5 Billion to 2.35 Trillion
    Bush (I) ran it up another 156% going to 3.67 Trillion
    Clinton's watch saw the debt go up 154% to 5.66 Trillion
    Bush (II) has watched the debt go up 137% since taking over the office. As of June 2005 it stood at 7.75 Trillion

    Now take off the interest that is accumulating on these debts and you see the following.

    George HW Bush added $309 Billion while in office (and fought the Gulf War)
    Bill Clinton's first 4 years added $1.1 Trillion
    Bill Clinton's second 4 years added $478.7 Billion for total of $1.58 Trillion during his watch
    George W Bush's first 4 years added $1.17 Trillion (while fighting 2 wars)
    George W Bush has added $274 Billion through 2004 (still fighting 2 wars)

    Including the interest (I do not have interest number for these years)

    Reagan added $1.5 Trillion in his 8 years.
    Carter added $127 Billion in his last 2 years.

    I point this out to say that while the debt is snowballing, Clinton and George W. have added to the debt at about the same rate. The problem is the interest on the debt is killing us.

    The interest alone on our debt since 1987 when Reagan left office has accounted for $5.3 Trillion Dollars or enough to pay the national debt at the time Reagan left office 2.27 times.

    Look at the National debt then and add to it the interest charged and you get $7.68 Trillion Dollars. As of June 2005, the National Debt was at $7.75 Trillion Dollars only 73 Billion more then the debt Reagon left plus all the interest since then.

    The problem we face with the National debt is no different (although much bigger numbers) then trying to pay your credit card bill off by paying the monthly minimum due.

    The National Debt is not a George W Bush created problem and he is not adding to it any faster then any of the Presidents since Reagan.

    ADDED: Footnote
    Keep in mind Congress' idea of a spending cut is not spending as much MORE next year as they had planned. We need real cuts in spending and no one wants to be the one to propose them for fear of getting assualted by whatever special interest group is hurt. Special Interest Groups are killing our country. (my opinion of course)
    Last edited by RegulationE; 12-06-2005 at 05:31 AM.

  14. #14
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Alright Good point RequlationE, At least your stat sheet actually has to do with what is being talked about here and not something totally off the wall. But how did you come by this resourse of information, Id like to check this out for myself....
    war_on_scam

  15. #15
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    After checking and cross checking the numbers from various sites, Republican, Democrat, Lineral, Conservative, "I hate Bush", "I hate Clinton" and anywhere else I could find numbers, I found they are virtually all the same numbers, just varying opinions of the meaning of the numbers.

    I took three charts, the only one I remember where I got it from waswikipedia.org's History of the U.S. public debt.

    Yes I know this is not necessarily the most factual site in the world, but the chart there matches well with all the other data I have collected recently.

    I took the three charts and inserted them into a spread sheet and averaged them together to do my calculations. The average came out the same as each of the individual charts as well so I feel pretty confident in the numbers.

    They may be off by a billion here or there, but mainly what I was looking for was a trend and what compounded interest has done to the National Debt since the Reagon Administration. His was the one that jumped out at me as being when most people from both sides felt the debt had gotten out of control.

    Don't take my information here as supporting any President, I am simply trying to show that until any President and Congress really decides that cutting spending to pay of the debt is a priority, the debt will snow ball out of control. Until paying it off is taken seriously, each and every President from here on out will post the same type of stagering increased debt numbers or the US will be filing for bankruptcy protection. (Can a country even do that....hmmm)

  16. #16
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    Re: TRUTH About The ECONOMY

    Quote Originally Posted by pwrone
    On those thankfully rare occasions when you emerge from your self-styled cocoon of frothing gibberish ,it is generally to launch a personal attack on me. Perhaps I should take a moment to point out to you what most already know...that you simply contribute nothing. EVER. You have nothing positive to offer on any subject, prefering to mask your lack of knowledge or opinions in a veil of Tourettes-like babbling. Instead of engaging on a subject, any subject, you insist on throwing cheap shots under the guise of being a 'clever' moron.

    I don't know who you think you are fooling...I think you feel that you appear as a reclusive or retiring 'important thinker'... you do not. When wading through the cesspool of your vomitous spew, certain things remain constant. Your hatred of success, of those who have attained any measure of success, of those who hope to attain success. You hate what our country stands for--not just politically--the concept of working to improve oneself is often the target of your ineffectual, impotent rage. You have not embraced the American attitude of picking yourself up and climbing again. Your failures have defeated you and you are disgusted by those who can keep working to succeed.

    The law of the jungle has not worked in your favor. The law of natural selection does not work in your favor. Neither have the laws of Darwin. Perhaps you should take advantage of the one natural law that WILL work in your favor and find a friendly nearby bridge.

    ya know what my problem is,.....ya know what my problem is,.......I love you too!!XOXOXOXXOXO. :eek: :p :rolleyes:

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