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  1. #1
    Lord_jag's Avatar
    Lord_jag is offline I am God because I say I am. Prove me wrong. User Rank
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    Effect before cause

    I just found this artical. I thought it was worth sharing.


    Can Effect Come Before Cause in Global Warming?: New Findings on a Basic Relationship
    November 8, 1999

    Records of ancient climates show a close connection between atmospheric carbon dioxide and the Earth's temperature. Carbon dioxide and temperature have been tracking each other for many thousands of years. In his best-selling book, Earth in the Balance, Vice President Gore stressed this as strong evidence for global warming resulting from our burning of coal and oil for energy.

    But according to recent publications in Science (Fischer, H. et al March 12, 1999, p. 1712) and Nature (Petit, J.R. et al June 3, 1999, p. 431), when researchers looked in detail at the changes in temperature and carbon dioxide, they discovered a remarkable fact. The temperature and the carbon dioxide concentration do indeed vary together but the carbon dioxide changes occur AFTER the temperature changes. When the earth's temperature increases, carbon dioxide also increases, but roughly 1000 years later.

    Clearly, atmospheric carbon dioxide cannot be the cause of a warming that occurred before this carbon dioxide existed. If the increases in carbon dioxide come later than the increases in temperature, these increases in carbon dioxide cannot be the cause of the global warming: apparently they are one of its effects. But why should the warming of the earth cause an increase in the carbon dioxide of the atmosphere? The answer has to do with the oceans: the warmer the oceans, the less carbon dioxide they can hold. Consequently, when the oceans warm they release some of their carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This explains the connection between carbon dioxide and temperature and it also explains why the temperature changes before the carbon dioxide changes.


    Oh then I found this :

    MYTH Mankind is pumping out carbon dioxide at a prodigious rate.
    FACT 96.5% of all carbon dioxide emissions are from natural sources, mankind is responsible for only 3.5%, with 0.6% coming from fuel to move vehicles, and about 1% from fuel to heat buildings. Yet vehicle fuel (petrol) is taxed at 300% while fuel to heat buildings is taxed at 5% even though buildings emit nearly twice as much carbon dioxide!


    Weird...
    A real, honest, falsifiable claim made b.y Seer of dreams:(2011)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cnance View Post
    I believe there will be a nuclear war in October of this year.
    Oh Cnance.... Full of shit as always.

  2. #2
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    Re: Effect before cause

    This has been brought up so many times before. I'm going to quote from realclimate.org since I've typed my own answer to this at least 3 or 4 times before.

    From studying all the available data (not just ice cores), the probable sequence of events at a termination goes something like this. Some (currently unknown) process causes Antarctica and the surrounding ocean to warm. This process also causes CO2 to start rising, about 800 years later. Then CO2 further warms the whole planet, because of its heat-trapping properties. This leads to even further CO2 release. So CO2 during ice ages should be thought of as a "feedback", much like the feedback that results from putting a microphone too near to a loudspeaker.

    In other words, CO2 does not initiate the warmings, but acts as an amplifier once they are underway. From model estimates, CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O) causes about half of the full glacial-to-interglacial warming.

    So, in summary, the lag of CO2 behind temperature doesn't tell us much about global warming. [But it may give us a very interesting clue about why CO2 rises at the ends of ice ages. The 800-year lag is about the amount of time required to flush out the deep ocean through natural ocean currents. So CO2 might be stored in the deep ocean during ice ages, and then get released when the climate warms.]

  3. #3
    Lord_jag's Avatar
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    Re: Effect before cause

    You're right, we've been around this circuit a few times. But that, once again, says to me that the CO2 was going to rise no matter what we do.

    And it appears to me from those statements that CO2 does not CAUSE warming, it is the effect of warming, and has a much smaller forcing that whatever does cause warming in the first place.

    Whatever that cause is, it overides the forcing of CO2. When theres no CO2, it will take over and cause a warming anyways. When there's tonnes of CO2, it can just as easily cause a cooling even though CO2 is very high and still rising.

    Do we have any idea what this forcing is? The one that overrides CO2 levels with such ease? It seems to be rather periodic, and looks to me like it's overdue for another drop in temperature for the next 100K years.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...core-petit.png

    It also appears to me that the CO2 does not seem to be any more than any of the last 3 warming periods, and when the world drops 8 degrees, we may want all the warming we could get to stave off the next ice age.
    A real, honest, falsifiable claim made b.y Seer of dreams:(2011)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cnance View Post
    I believe there will be a nuclear war in October of this year.
    Oh Cnance.... Full of shit as always.

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    Re: Effect before cause

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord_jag View Post
    Do we have any idea what this forcing is? The one that overrides CO2 levels with such ease? It seems to be rather periodic, and looks to me like it's overdue for another drop in temperature for the next 100K years.
    Yep. It's the sun, and the Milankovitch cycles. When the sun's output increases it heats up the Earth, which causes CO2 to be released, which traps more of the sun's energy, which causes heats up the earth more, which releases even more CO2......

    The difference between that natural cycle and what we have now is that previously CO2 only reacted to external changes. Today we are extracting enormous amounts of carbon that were taken out of the cycle a long time ago, and pumping it back in very quickly. It's because of this that CO2 can no longer be considered merely a feedback mechanism, and must now be considered a forcing.

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    Re: Effect before cause

    It's all matter of degree and the exploitation of the miniscule--including brains.

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