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  1. #1
    BVR USA Liaison Guest

    Oil Past Peak Production

    Oil Past Peak Production
    The price and availability of oil affects our entire economy! Transportation, banking, food production, suburbia, and more....

    Oil Past Peak Production
    Friday July 13, 4:47 pm ET
    By Dirk van Djik, CFA

    "There are several major oil exporters which are at or past their peak levels of production. This is a very serious problem, and a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that world oil demand is likely to outstrip world oil capacity within 5 years. Of course, in reality, demand can not exceed supply or the market will not clear. However, prices would have to rise to the point where demand is suppressed enough to match the available supply, and that number is likely to be far higher than what we are seeing today, in real prices."

    Oil demand is highly correlated with economic growth and prosperity. So lets consider what happens if some of the major oil producers get to the point where their production starts to fall..."

  2. #2
    BVR USA Liaison Guest

    Re: Oil Past Peak Production

    "Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought
    There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left"

    Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

    Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

    In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

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