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  1. #1
    Yawn...'s Avatar
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    Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Now we get to see a short squeeze boy & girls.

    It is 'possible' that Herbalife will hit at least $70 and maybe over $100.

    Damm, this thing got ugly early.

    Carl Icahn now has 25% stake in Herbalife, and 2 of his boys on the board.

    Herbalife is gonna go private (my guess) which will rid them of that pesky SEC investigation and effectively any FTC regulatory action.

    And Ackman is gonna get his ass handed to him.

    Stay tuned for the train wreck.

    BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH™

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

    Attachment 13790

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by iamwil View Post
    Looks like the guy tried to make hay when a pyramid scheme hit the news and tried to taint herbalife with it and now he stands to lose millions on his play....

    I worked with Enrich Intl in the 90's their founders were the same family as the owners of herbalife....they got bought out when Royal Numico (owned by the dutch govt/monarchy) bought out them, Rexall Sundown (MLM arm of old Rexall Drugs) and GNC in the same year...took the best of Rexall and Enrich products and manufacturing and put them on GNC labels....Continued MLM under the name Unicity....
    Will - Ackman's losses could be in the BILLIONS.

    It's gonna be the mother of all shorts.

    Ackman was betting on a 'cum' (C-O-M-E) — A long shot.
    Last edited by Yawn...; 03-01-2013 at 12:58 AM.

  3. #3
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by iamwil View Post
    Looks like the guy tried to make hay when a pyramid scheme hit the news and tried to taint herbalife with it and now he stands to lose millions on his play....

    I worked with Enrich Intl in the 90's their founders were the same family as the owners of herbalife....they got bought out when Royal Numico (owned by the dutch govt/monarchy) bought out them, Rexall Sundown (MLM arm of old Rexall Drugs) and GNC in the same year...took the best of Rexall and Enrich products and manufacturing and put them on GNC labels....Continued MLM under the name Unicity....
    Wall Street has always been skeptical on MLM companies.

    Interestingly their (brokers & investment advisors) compensation system (in many cases) is similar if not EXACTLY the same as a number of MLMs.

    And in some cases, the distribution system of some 'products' (such as they are - think CDOs*) is like MLMs.


    * CDO's = Collateralized debt obligations = Mortgage and debt obligations = Housing crisis = that all were creations of Wall Street

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Further - even companies such as ADT Securities pay their commissions in a 1-Up/2-Up style plan.

    Newbies come in and qualify for full commissions (at their level) by passing up a sale to their sponsor/manager/company, etc....

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by Yawn... View Post
    Will - Ackman's losses could be in the BILLIONS.

    It's gonna be the mother of all shorts.

    Ackman was betting on a 'cum' (C-O-M-E) — A long shot.
    Ackman could still sell while he still has a profit.
    Originally Posted by nomaxim
    Sorry there ''ohein56', but it appears that 'Joecool44' does not have the position that you envision on this topic.

    'Joecool44' has, as a matter of routine, refuted most of your accusations
    Quote Originally Posted by Jax74 View Post
    Some people have the ability to think critically, some do not. ohein obviously doesn't.

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by Yawn... View Post
    ]Will - Ackman's losses could be in the BILLIONS.
    Yet another victim of anti-MLM zealots like Robert FitzPatrick.

    Strangely, I don't feel sorry for him

    New to scam.com? This is what you can expect from MLM critics in support of their claims ....


    Why the f-u-c-k do you need evidence all the time? - Zapticon
    You know that I don't provide proof of my claims - Once Upon A Time
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by Yawn... View Post
    Herbalife is gonna go private (my guess) which will rid them of that pesky SEC investigation and effectively any FTC regulatory action.
    Why would it stop any (mythical) FTC action?

    New to scam.com? This is what you can expect from MLM critics in support of their claims ....


    Why the f-u-c-k do you need evidence all the time? - Zapticon
    You know that I don't provide proof of my claims - Once Upon A Time
    I have the information but I'm not posting it - Joecool


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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by bibleman View Post
    Further - even companies such as ADT Securities pay their commissions in a 1-Up/2-Up style plan.

    Newbies come in and qualify for full commissions (at their level) by passing up a sale to their sponsor/manager/company, etc....
    Genius aint it....
    I Am Still Empowered, you can't take that away...

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by iamempowered View Post
    Genius aint it....

    Yes and no.

    Companies know that most people will try sales, make a sale or two, and quit.

    Why give those commissions to a quitter?

    Its a perk for the ones who stick around, and if the newbie sticks around a while, maybe they'll get their own pass-ups.


    Sucks for the beginner, who has to work for free for a while....but that's sales for ya. Not very glamorous, but will pay off if you have the gumption and personality for it.......and keep going.

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by IBOFightBack View Post
    Why would it stop any (mythical) FTC action?
    Yup, I think Yawn knows this already too.

    Quote Originally Posted by yawn
    Perhaps you lack an understanding of the function of the Federal Trade Commission.

    Before You Submit a Complaint

    The Federal Trade Commission, the nation's consumer protection agency, collects complaints about companies, business practices, identity theft, and episodes of violence in the media.

    Why: Your complaints can help us detect patterns of wrong-doing, and lead to investigations and prosecutions. The FTC enters all complaints it receives into Consumer Sentinel, a secure online database that is used by thousands of civil and criminal law enforcement authorities worldwide. The FTC does not resolve individual consumer complaints.
    https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/
    I Am Still Empowered, you can't take that away...

  11. #11
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by bibleman View Post
    Yes and no.

    Companies know that most people will try sales, make a sale or two, and quit.
    Because in a LOT of cases people are just LAZY and don't want to work hard.

    MLM aside here, I have busted my ass to get where i am at now. MOST people work into their 60's and even 70's before they can retire and collect that SS check, with very little to show for it.

    Example, my wife's sister and husband have taken vacation after vacation, eat out all the time, and are always crying how they still owe more on the house than they did when they started because of second mortgages and loans against it.

    WE took the smart approach. Skipped the vacations, fed ourselves home cooked meals, and PAID THE DEBT.

    Now we are DEBT free, and we pay ourselves first. We also take 20% off the top and put back into each business. MY businesses are DEBT FREE, and my wife's business is DEBT FREE.
    All the equipment is paid for and we only purchase new equipment with cash or keep a ZERO balance on the cards.

    The point I am trying to make here is that people will work at something for a while (as you said) and then move on. Those few that stay focused and work at it are the ones that the others DEMAND more of.

    Quote Originally Posted by bibleman View Post
    Why give those commissions to a quitter?
    Agreed.

    Quote Originally Posted by bibleman View Post
    Its a perk for the ones who stick around, and if the newbie sticks around a while, maybe they'll get their own pass-ups.
    Exactly, but too many people want it overnight and when it doesn't come, they move on and leave with animosity for the company.


    Quote Originally Posted by bibleman View Post
    Sucks for the beginner, who has to work for free for a while....but that's sales for ya. Not very glamorous, but will pay off if you have the gumption and personality for it.......and keep going.
    I have been in "Sales" most of my life.
    I can;t sit and wait for someone who needs a voice over to come to me, I have to get out there and hustle for it.

    I can't wait for someone to call me asking if I clean carpets, I have to advertise, I have to hit the pavement and leave cards out there. I have a van with my logo, what services we do, and our number PLASTERED all over it (it's a rolling billboard), I don't get paid for doing that it's like working for FREE, My return is that when I am cleaning carpets I make VERY GOOD money.

    Sadly too many don't understand that in order to succeed you need to work hard at it.
    I Am Still Empowered, you can't take that away...

  12. #12
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by iamempowered View Post
    Because in a LOT of cases people are just LAZY and don't want to work hard.

    MLM aside here, I have busted my ass to get where i am at now. MOST people work into their 60's and even 70's before they can retire and collect that SS check, with very little to show for it.

    Example, my wife's sister and husband have taken vacation after vacation, eat out all the time, and are always crying how they still owe more on the house than they did when they started because of second mortgages and loans against it.

    WE took the smart approach. Skipped the vacations, fed ourselves home cooked meals, and PAID THE DEBT.

    Now we are DEBT free, and we pay ourselves first. We also take 20% off the top and put back into each business. MY businesses are DEBT FREE, and my wife's business is DEBT FREE.
    All the equipment is paid for and we only purchase new equipment with cash or keep a ZERO balance on the cards.

    The point I am trying to make here is that people will work at something for a while (as you said) and then move on. Those few that stay focused and work at it are the ones that the others DEMAND more of.


    Agreed.


    Exactly, but too many people want it overnight and when it doesn't come, they move on and leave with animosity for the company.




    I have been in "Sales" most of my life.
    I can;t sit and wait for someone who needs a voice over to come to me, I have to get out there and hustle for it.

    I can't wait for someone to call me asking if I clean carpets, I have to advertise, I have to hit the pavement and leave cards out there. I have a van with my logo, what services we do, and our number PLASTERED all over it (it's a rolling billboard), I don't get paid for doing that it's like working for FREE, My return is that when I am cleaning carpets I make VERY GOOD money.

    Sadly too many don't understand that in order to succeed you need to work hard at it.


    Can't argue with anything you've said here.

  13. #13
    Yawn...'s Avatar
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by IBOFightBack View Post
    Why would it stop any (mythical) FTC action?
    What I said was, 'will rid them of that pesky SEC investigation and effectively any FTC regulatory action'.

    The greater risk is being under the purview of the SEC.

    If the company goes private, fewer eyes will be on the company, therefore decreasing the likelihood of possible FTC action.

  14. #14
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by Joecool44 View Post
    Ackman could still sell while he still has a profit.
    Both Ackman and Icahn are doomed concerning Herbalife.

    I'll tell ya why Icahn is gonna get fvcked by Herbalife later..... *

    •••••••••••••••

    First things first: Ackman handed Herbalife to Icahn on a silver platter by driving down price.

    Icahn owns now 25% of the 'float'. (shares outstanding on the open market)

    Ackman needs to buy shares to exit his short position.

    Buying shares increases demand, which increases price. (Demand drives Price)

    Buying in gonna be tricky for Ackman.

    A small increase in demand could exponentially increase price - Example:
    1) Ackman bids 10,000 shares at current market price, say $40 and is able to buy.
    2) Next 10,000 shares he needs to bid slightly higher, say $ 40.50 and is able to buy.
    3) At some point in the demand curve price shifts high and to the right....
    4) Icahn and others who control available shares won't accept bids at any reasonable price.
    5) Their thinking is why sell today when share prices are increasing.

    Icahn and others won't sell at any price - It's personal, they are gonna crush Ackman.

    That my friend is what we call the short squeeze.

    •••••••••••••••

    Second thing:

    I think the outcome of Icahn's move will be a 'tender offer' by Icahn and his bankers.

    Herbalife board will approve - it's in their best interest.

    Share holders (I think) can accept the 'tender offer' - my wild guess is that it will be in the $60 range.

    The vast majority of share holders will make money.

    Ackman is doomed.

    •••••••••••••••


    * How Icahn is gonna get fvcked, and why investing is Herbalife is a foolish move:

    1) 2008 Herbalife recruited 1.1 million distributors = Net Sales $2.3 billion.
    2) 2012 Herbalife recruited 1.96 million distributors = Net Sales $4 billion.
    3) Herbalife doubled in size in five years, However
    4) Dollar Value of Net Sales per distributor is the same or has remained flat over the past 5 years.

    Herbalife's revenue (sales) is a function of new distributors who typically exist after a year. Growth in distributors is a function of Herbalife's entry into new markets which have the characteristic of significant declines after about 5 years. Revenue growth rates in most 'older markets' also tends to flatten at the five year mark. Herbalife is now in about 88 countries. Their are possibly a few more countries where 'H' can find new market, but that is an ever decreasing number.

    If Herblife continues to operate their chain scheme in this manner, without new product entries, and without significant changes to their distributor retention the overall rate of revenue growth will flatten to 'normal' growth rates.

    This will occur at the (guessing) at about year four or five......

    Earning per share is about 9x or 10x = Icon's breakeven point on this deal is about year 9....

    If Herbalife continues this rate of growth through year 9.

    That is a huge IF !!!!!

    The big disappoint is about year 4 when the earnings curve peaks and shifts downward in later years....

    In conclusion:
    Icahn is also doomed - he paid too much per share
    Last edited by Yawn...; 03-03-2013 at 01:51 AM.

  15. #15
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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Years Herbalife has been in business is irrelevant.

    And no, I am not predicting Herbalife's demise rather, Icahn paying too much.

    Icahn will not see a profit from this investment.

    This is due to Herbalife's dependence and addiction to recruiting new distributors.

    This is a fools game. Herbalife needs to focus on product, and fair compensation to retain distributors.

    Churning distributors drives revenue in the short run. In the long run it won't work.

    The rate of distributor & revenue growth is unsustainable.

    This rate of growth drove share prices to $70.

    Attachment 13795

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    Re: Herbalife - Ackman is Doomed

    Quote Originally Posted by Yawn... View Post
    Churning distributors drives revenue in the short run. In the long run it won't work.
    If it's anything like Amway, the churn is through distributors who create almost no revenue anyway.

    New to scam.com? This is what you can expect from MLM critics in support of their claims ....


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