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  #1  
Old 06-22-2011, 06:07 PM
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97% of scientists believe in climate chang

I'm surprised no one brought this up yet.
http://www.npr.org/2011/06/21/137309...cientists-sure

And here's a little more info on the study itself (since the NPR link contained almost nothing about it).

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...imate-change/1

Granted, 1,372 isn't the biggest sample size ever, but 97% is a pretty strong number.

I was going to post this in the political section but that would be, ya know, irrelevant.


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  #2  
Old 06-22-2011, 06:45 PM
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no. you are correct. man made global warming is a political topic. unless we take control of economy away from the capitalist owners and give control to our socialist ruling class, we are all doomed. once we submit to being slaves to our new world government, it will be announced that they have miraculously solved the problem. doesn't matter if it's true or not. when they thought we were headed into new ice age, the prescription was the same.

http://www.orwelltoday.com/truth.shtml

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The Ministsry of Truth concerned itself with Lies. Party ownership of the print media made it easy to manipulate public opinion, and the film and radio carried the process further.

The primary job of the Ministry of Truth was to supply the citizens of Oceania with newspapers, films, textbooks, telescreen programmes, plays, novels - with every conceivable kind of information, instruction, or entertainment, from a statue to a slogan, from a lyric poem to a biological treatise, and from a child's spelling-book to a Newspeak dictionary.
did they fail to mention that 97% percent of scientists have not examined the evidence of man made global warming and know only what they heard on the radio and saw in al gore's movie?



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  #3  
Old 06-22-2011, 07:48 PM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2...pen-naturally/

Quote:
If Cook’s statement were correct, the implication would be that the climate does not normally change.

Climate scientists can’t forecast the Sun, volcanoes, oceanic cycles, clouds, rain, snow, ice, soil moisture – or anything else which affects the climate long term, but they claim that they can predict the future based on a single variable.

This is witchcraft, not science.



oh, now that's different. it says 97% of the people being paid to study global warming believe in it. well, duh. if they were pretty sure it was crap, they would go study something else, eh?

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  #4  
Old 06-22-2011, 11:34 PM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

The actual paper cited is at www.pnas.org (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

Quote:
Abstract

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
Full paper can be found in .pdf at .pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html.

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  #5  
Old 01-14-2012, 09:22 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

Quote:
97% of scientists believe in climate chang
Appeal to authority. Bandwagon fallacy. "So many people believe it so it must be true."

Herd mentality.
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  #6  
Old 01-14-2012, 09:42 AM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
Appeal to authority. Bandwagon fallacy. "So many people believe it so it must be true."

Herd mentality.
...and, normally you would be correct. The evidence, however, proves you are incorrect.
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  #7  
Old 01-14-2012, 09:44 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by LogicallyYours View Post
...and, normally you would be correct. The evidence, however, proves you are incorrect.
The evidence in this case has been manipulated, this is proven. Confirmation bias, appeal to authority and bandwagon fallacies do the rest. Even Goebbels knew this. Say it long enough and loud enough, it becomes true.
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  #8  
Old 01-14-2012, 10:16 AM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
The evidence in this case has been manipulated, this is proven. Confirmation bias, appeal to authority and bandwagon fallacies do the rest. Even Goebbels knew this. Say it long enough and loud enough, it becomes true.
You claim that, "The evidence in this case has been manipulated, this is proven." is bullshiz.

If you're attempting to base this claim on the hacked emails regarding Michael Mann and is "hockey stick" graph....its long been debunked and his data cleard.

Quote:
The American scientist who produced the "hockey stick graph" showing a sharp rise in global warming was largely cleared of misconduct by an academic investigation today.

The board of inquiry at Pennsylvania State University said it found no evidence that Michael Mann, a leading climatologist, had suppressed or falsified data, tried to destroy data or emails, or misused information. It will convene a second panel to investigate whether he had violated academic practices, including those governing exchanges between scholars.

The university ordered the investigation by three senior faculty members after Mann's name appeared in more than 375 of the hacked emails from the University of East Anglia's climate research unit. Climate change sceptics jumped on one email which describes Mann's solution to a problem as a "trick", a shorthand among scientists and mathematicians, as evidence of an effort to distort data.

The panel dismissed the charge. "The so-called 'trick' was nothing more than a statistical method used to bring two or more different kinds of data sets together in a legitimate fashion by a technique that has been reviewed by a broad array of peers in the field," the panel said.

It also cleared Mann of purposely hiding or destroying email relating to an IPCC climate change report.

It said it found nothing to support the charge that Mann had conspired with like-minded scholars to block competing scholars.

Mann said he was pleased with the decision. "After a thorough review, the independent Penn State committee found no evidence to support any of the allegations against me. Three of the four allegations have been dismissed completely," he said. "Even though no evidence to substantiate the fourth allegation was found, the university administrators thought it best to convene a separate committee of distinguished scientists to resolve any remaining questions about academic procedures. This is very much the vindication I expected since I am confident I have done nothing wrong."

Environmental organisations also welcomed the decision, saying the controversy over the climate hack had been a dangerous distraction.

"This is a step in the right direction that should help us move past the manufactured controversy over the stolen emails," said Peter Frumhoff, director of climate policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "The truth is that global warming is here, it's dangerous, and it is already affecting us."

But Mann has become a favourite target of climate change deniers because of the powerful image of his hockey stick graph, which shows a sharp rise in average global temperature in the 20th century – and they are unlikely to stop now. The graph assembled data from hundreds of studies of past temperatures using tree rings, lake sediment, and glacier ice cores. It was first published in 1998.
There is a great series of videos discussing climate change on YouTube by a BBC investigative science reporter, Potholer54. He reviews almost all the claims by deniers like Lord Monckton for their validity and credibility. It really is well done and enjoyable to watch.

This is just one addressing the hacked emails.
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Last edited by LogicallyYours : 01-14-2012 at 10:20 AM.
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  #9  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:11 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

Quote:
Originally Posted by LogicallyYours View Post
You claim that, "The evidence in this case has been manipulated, this is proven." is bullshiz.

If you're attempting to base this claim on the hacked emails regarding Michael Mann and is "hockey stick" graph....its long been debunked and his data cleard.
First of all there wasn't any "hacking," the emails were leaked by someone with access. A whistleblower.

Your "debunking" is pretty old and has been debunked as well - and doesn't even address the most recent leaks which are far more damning then the first set.

Then there's this, no one wants to explain - scientists making wild claims based on faulty information, and never are challenged on it. I give you March, 2000 and one such wacky claim:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

Quote:
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
Gee, lookie there. Mr. Climategate himself, Viner. And couldn't have been more wrong. Again, this was March, 2000. Twelve years ago. This was before they learned to modify their claims, painting with still a more broad brush, taking any and all weather extremes as "further evidence."

So, how long are people going to fall for this obvious scam?
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  #10  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:15 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

New Year’s Resolutions For Climate Scientists and their slavish worshipers

I Will...

... admit that warming has been much slower than we expected
... admit that recent sea level rise is nothing unusual or threatening
... admit that forecasts of declining snow cover were wrong
... admit that Arctic temperatures are cyclical, and that we have no idea what will happen to Arctic ice over the next 50 years
... admit that forecasts of Antarctic warming have been a total failure.
... admit that Polar Bear populations are not threatened
... admit that climate models have demonstrated no skill, and are nothing more than research projects
... admit there was a Medieval Warm Period
... admit that that there was a Little Ice Age
... stop pretending that we don’t have climate records prior to 1970
... admit that the surface temperature record has been manipulated and is contaminated by UHI
... stop making up data where none exists
... honestly face skeptics in open debate.
... quit trying to stop skeptics from being published
... admit that glaciers have been disappearing for thousands of years
... stop telling people that the climate is getting more extreme, without producing any evidence
... admit that hurricanes are on the decline
... admit that severe tornadoes are on the decline
... admit that droughts were much worse in the past
... admit that efforts to shut down power plants have potentially very serious consequences for the future
... pay for my own tickets to tropical climate boondoggles like Cancun, rather than improperly using taxpayer money for political activism
... admit that there is no "missing heat"
... admit that temperatures have been cooling for at least the last decade
... publish the raw data for everyone to analyze and not "lose" it.

And so on.
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  #11  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:30 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by yyy123 View Post
Without a doubt one of the more ignorant posts ever written.

CO2 is not a pollutant... when the levels are not elevated. Elevate the level and watch things die. Don't believe it? I challenge you to breathe it for 1 hour.

The industrialized West is not cleaner because of their governmental or economic systems. They are cleaner because of enforced regulation. Remove the regulation and watch things turn to shit again real quick. (Hint: regulation leads to increased costs which reduces profits. Result: increased consumer costs to maintain profits. Remove enforced regulation and you get increased profits and pollution, but no reduction in consumer prices)

You did not directly say it is Ok to pullute... you implied it. I just took it to the next level of extrapolation.

All this begs the question:

Would we not benefit from cleaning up / reducing the waste gasses we dump into the atmosphere?





.
Nonsense.

Regulation does not drive change. Profit drives change. Better technology drives change. Human's nature to strive to improve, drives change.

The whole argument is based on the failed premise that mankind is somehow significant on this planet, indeed on the galactic scale. We are not. It's inherent vanity.

If the stated goals of the environuts were attained - greatly reducing CO2 in the atmosphere - we would not have a green planet - we would have a cold, dark, near dead one where only the chosen elite few could survive - because CO2 is the lifeblood of the planet. Every living thing depends upon it.

They know this. It's Eugenics.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:33 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by yyy123 View Post
Would we not benefit from cleaning up / reducing the waste gasses we dump into the atmosphere?
Strawman fallacy, since no one is arguing against this and never has.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:37 AM
yyy123 yyy123 is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
Strawman fallacy, since no one is arguing against this and never has.
Thanks for the critique...

And your opinion is? Or do you just critique other posts and serve no apparent purpose?


.

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  #14  
Old 01-14-2012, 11:39 AM
Dewercs Rey Dewercs Rey is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by yyy123 View Post
Thanks for the critique...

And your opinion is? Or do you just critique other posts and serve no apparent purpose?


.
It wasn't a critique, just a fact. Unless you're prepared to trot out anyone saying we shouldn't "clean up / reduce the waste gasses we dump into the atmosphere" it remains a Strawman.

It just is what it is. Maybe you should educate yourself on basic logical fallacies, perchance not to be slavishly regurgitating them, unknowingly.
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:42 AM
yyy123 yyy123 is offline
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

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Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
Nonsense.

Regulation does not drive change. Profit drives change. Better technology drives change. Human's nature to strive to improve, drives change.

The whole argument is based on the failed premise that mankind is somehow significant on this planet, indeed on the galactic scale. We are not. It's inherent vanity.

If the stated goals of the environuts were attained - greatly reducing CO2 in the atmosphere - we would not have a green planet - we would have a cold, dark, near dead one where only the chosen elite few could survive - because CO2 is the lifeblood of the planet. Every living thing depends upon it.

They know this. It's Eugenics.
I guess you missed this part...
(Hint: regulation leads to increased costs which reduces profits. Result: increased consumer costs to maintain profits. Remove enforced regulation and you get increased profits and pollution, but no reduction in consumer prices)

It says change is driven by profit, but it also says the reason for the environmental change to the better is regulation... not profit.

And, of course, thank you Mr Obvious for the biology lesson. Of course life depends on CO2... just not too much of it. CO2 emissions will never be eliminated... that is impossible. The goal is to not have excessive CO2, which is toxic.


and Yes, you did state a fact... in the form of a critique. However, you are missing the point. The point is that instead of going overboard and reacting in an extreme fashion to excessive CO2... take steps to recognize too much is not good for us & do what we can to limit excessive CO2 output.

Mankind does not interact with the environment on a galactic scale, but on a planetary one only. We do have an effect on that environment. Your comparison is invalid.

.


Last edited by yyy123 : 01-14-2012 at 11:56 AM.
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  #16  
Old 01-14-2012, 01:12 PM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
First of all there wasn't any "hacking," the emails were leaked by someone with access. A whistleblower.

Your "debunking" is pretty old and has been debunked as well - and doesn't even address the most recent leaks which are far more damning then the first set.

Then there's this, no one wants to explain - scientists making wild claims based on faulty information, and never are challenged on it. I give you March, 2000 and one such wacky claim:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

Gee, lookie there. Mr. Climategate himself, Viner. And couldn't have been more wrong. Again, this was March, 2000. Twelve years ago. This was before they learned to modify their claims, painting with still a more broad brush, taking any and all weather extremes as "further evidence."

So, how long are people going to fall for this obvious scam?
Hacked or leaked???...what's the difference? The intent of the lead was to try to undermine the credibility of the data and it failed.

That's your proof of the "big lie"? ...and article from 2000??? Sure, there will always be people on both side exagerating to enhance or convince but, that date still holds.

Denier fav Lord Monckton has tried to undermine or prove wrong the data even to the point of dishonestly and has failed miserably.

Fact, there is no question regarding if Climate Change is happening...then only real question is, how much is Man impacting or hastening that change.
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Old 01-14-2012, 04:24 PM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewercs Rey View Post
Appeal to authority. Bandwagon fallacy. "So many people believe it so it must be true."

Herd mentality.
An appeal to authority is not a logical fallacy when the person is an actual authority.

If I said, "Stephen Hawking said global warming is real, therefore global warming is real" that would be a logical fallacy.

If instead I said, "Stephen Hawking said that a mainstream star below the Chandrasekhar limit can form a black hole under certain circumstances, therefore it's true" it is not a logical fallcy. (It still may be false, but if Hawking had argued it then that would be a significant point in its favor because he is an expert in the matter.)



If a doctor tells you that need surgery, do you disbelieve them? If I say that you should listen to your doctor's opinion because they are an expert in medicine, is that an appeal to authority?

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  #18  
Old 01-16-2012, 01:38 PM
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Re: 97% of scientists believe in climate chang

I'm not sure what "climate chang" is but I think I believe in it. I think I believe in climate ching, too.


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